Thursday, January 10, 2013

Oscar: Early predix in the big races

Well, I'm kind of glad I didn't write a predictions list this year, since I would have gotten my butt kicked, just like Ben Afleck and Kathryn Bigelow. Emerging unscathed for now, I will tread into the waters of early predictions.


Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

No real big surprises here. I was a little sad Moonrise Kingdom missed the cut, but it was never a sure thing.  With 12 nominations, Lincoln shapes up as the early favorite, though Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook are positioned to steal. 


Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

The president is the prohibitive favorite. So much so that I can't even call second place.

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Watts is the only one I don't see winning. They won't have many more chances to award Riva, and Wallis could be a one-hit wonder like Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider. Still, I think this is a tight race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. I give the edge to Chastain, who still has momentum left over from her amazing run last year.


Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

One of the tougher races to call.  All all prior winners. But Jones almost steals the film from Day-Lewis, and that's no small feat.

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Anne. Not even up for debate. Forgive me, Amy.

Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Had Affleck been nominated, I would have said he could win. Alas ... I think Mr. Spielberg will win his third Oscar for making a film that's really a chamber piece. And had I written that sentence 20 years ago, I'd have said I was crazy.

More to come ...


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Scott Copeland said...

I'm not Anonymous, haven't been to West Virginia in awhile, and don't care about a dating site as I am happily married. So let's talk about movies. Lincoln's the favorite for picture, but I can see possibilities of Life of Pi, Amour, Silver Linings Playbook, and Argo catching up. I do have a hard time seeing Les Miserables or Zero Dark Thirty winning, and I give no chance to Django Unchained or Beasts of the Southern Wild. It will be an interesting month waiting for the results.