Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Oscar Predix 12 : Actresses

Now for the analysis to get a little more in-depth.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: It's Oscar bait (playing in drag), voters will admire this was a passion project for Close (she produced, co-wrote the screenplay and even wrote song lyrics) and rather remarkably, Close doesn't have an Oscar yet.

Why she might not: The film is a whole is generally regarded as underwhelming and not as well seen as the other films in the category. 

Viola Davis, The Help

Why she might win: She's due. Overdue, one could argue. She's consistently great in everything she does, and she shone in a big box office hit. She has won most of the precursors.

Why she might not: There's a slim chance of there being an upswing of support for Streep, who has not won since the early 80s. But don't bank on it. This is Davis' to lose.

Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Why she might win: She underwent a remarkable transformation. Just think: that's the same girl who dumped Zuckerberg in The Social Network? Even more impressively, she made the role her own, even in the long shadow of Noomi Rapace.

Why she might not: Too soon. If this role is any indication, she'll be back. And the competition is just too strong.

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Why she might win: She's only the greatest living American actress. And her transformation into the controversial and legendary prime minister is remarkable. Though she seems to be nominated every year, she hasn't actually won since Sophie's Choice some 30 years ago. 
Why she might not: The film itself underwhelmed a lot of people and might not be cause enough for Streep to be back in the winner's circle just yet.

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Why she might win: She doesn't look or sound much like Marilyn in real life, but she absolutely nailed her portrayal of the legend. She's on her third nomination, so the Academy loves her.

Why she might not: The film is (wrongly) considered slight by some. As much as a roll she's on now, it's plainly evident she'll be back. Her time will come.

Should win: Mara
Will win: Davis

Best Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Why she might win: She could win on a sweep for The Artist. Voters might find it fun to pair her with Jean Dujardin, the likely Best Actor winner.

Why she might not: There really hasn't been much buzz about her in the ramp-up to the Oscars. She's a dark horse at best.

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Why she might win: She has had an absolutely fantastic and breakout year, having been excellent in all her other films of 2011, including Take Shelter, The Debt and the film she really should have been nominated for, The Tree of Life.

Why she might not: Her nominated co-stars in The Help have the most memorable moments in the movie. At the rate Chastain is going, we'll certainly see her nominated again soon.

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Why she might win: She was the scene-stealer of the year, and a hilarious one to boot.

Why she might not: Comedies aren't taken seriously enough.

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: She had a nice little comeback after being nominated years ago for Tumbleweeds, but not gaining much attention since.

Why she might not: Neither her movie, nor her campaign, has much momentum.

Octavia Spencer, The Help 

Why she might win: She has owned this role, even before the movie came out, playing Minny in the audio book. She's won most if not all percursors. And I think voters like the idea of making history by having Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress going to African-Americans.

Why she might not: Well, there was always the Juliette Binoche scenario ...

Will win: Spencer
Should win: Bejo, who's nearly as delightful as her co-star.

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